The Global Forecast using new data from to Jorgen Randers. Professor. Center for Climate Strategy. BI Norwegian Business School. Glimpse. has ratings and 33 reviews. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical l. – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is a book describing trends in global development. It is written by Jørgen Randers and is a follow-up to .

Author: Yozshutilar Mabei
Country: Ghana
Language: English (Spanish)
Genre: Medical
Published (Last): 11 February 2009
Pages: 271
PDF File Size: 13.89 Mb
ePub File Size: 10.99 Mb
ISBN: 847-8-99673-158-7
Downloads: 36336
Price: Free* [*Free Regsitration Required]
Uploader: Dira

And what does our future look like? The latest assessment, published inconcluded that the global average surface temperature is most likely to increase by 2. Other, more difficult things are made known – poverty will become a worsening issue, urbanisation and the decline of agrarian living are inevitable, and we will generally be unsuccessful in taking required action on climate change.

The population, unfortunately, already overtook the book’s projections by nearly mln. Economies like the United States will stagnate.

Hence, their job is to make sure their people will lose last. It predicted that during the ranedrs half of the 21st century the ongoing growth in the human ecological footprint would stop-either through catastrophic “overshoot and collapse”-or through well-managed “peak and decline. These exerpts have the effect of muddying the book’s message, somewhat, and the author seems to pick and choose bits from them that support his case. So overall a footprint that grows but around stabilises.

The reason for this is simple: Study at Cambridge Undergraduate Graduate International students Continuing education Executive and professional education Courses in education. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Choice- In commemoration of the 40th anniversary of Limits to Growth CH, Nov’73Randers climate strategy, BI Norwegian Business School forecasts changes in population, consumption, energy use, emissions, quality of life, and climate over the next 40 years. However, even before Fukushima, this renaissance was not quite all it randerw made out to be.


Despite the Fukushima reactor disaster in springthe prevailing mood jjorgen many countries in autumn remained broadly supportive of some kind of nuclear renaissance. That’s why I just skimmed the bulk of the book.

I must confess that I’ve read this book in a rather superficial way. China in will not be a nation-state in a traditional sense.

| A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, by Jorgen Randers

Forward-looking speculation suggests that Africa will double its population byfrom 1. Regional scenarios highlight the distribution of benefits rannders costs from climate change across the globe, underscoring the distinct consequences on the developed and developing world. The question now is if we’ll heed him this time. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility decline as result of increased urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens.

Another is what the cumulative impacts of slum urbanism will be by Not a large step from there to vilifying your opponents, declaring them mentally ill and sectioning them. Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources. The best bits are probably the ‘guest writer’ parts with essays from other scientists, researchers and so on. Each short story provides predictions about what our future environment and economy will resemble.

2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Norway has to seriously reform everything before or have 80k people unemployed for periods. Below I describe the future of the UK, and Scotland in particular, with a backdrop of key events elsewhere in Europe. We must not give up hope. However, it is more difficult to predict how robotic weapons will affect warfare and the structure of society. The author came to my attention because of a critique for his first attempt at projecting the future some forty years ago.

Unlike the original book The Limits of Growth from – scenario forecasting – this attempts at trend forecasting using a wealth of data that wasn’t available when the original book was written. He does waffle on a lot, and talks about other books he has written all the time, in case you want to buy them too. I think not, but I do think there will be a shift in the composition of future economic activity, so it becomes less damaging to values that are currently not priced in the marketplace.


Who cares about our grandchildren. Most of the growth in city dwelling will occur in what is currently called the developing world, principally in Asia and Africa. Thirty percent of the food consumed in Kampala today is produced in the metropolitan area.

An excellent continuation of the work started in Limits to Growth. Their sobering but far from despairing insights will encourage all who strive in applied hope to build a society worthy of nature’s legacy and humans’ potential.

Later came contrast angiography, then computerised imaging, followed by ever more advanced methods of making pictures of the human interior. Feb 25, John Carmichael rated it it was amazing. As a result, he provides a challenging template against which we can judge our own expectations for mid-century. But a significant minority will come from rural to urban migration and urban area reclassification.

As far as we can tell, the earth just before the appearance of modern humans was the most biodiverse it has ever been during the 3. These cookies and any others in use are detailed in our site privacy and cookie policies and are integral to our web site.

This diplomat was surprisingly honest. I read the Kindle version but have asked for a gift of the hard copy just to have on my bookshelf.

Expressions like a “benevolent dictator” is there such a thing?